NEWPORT NEWS, Va. - Virginia was a reliable Republican presidential state for 44 years. The last time this commonwealth gave its electoral votes to a Democrat, Lyndon B. Johnson occupied the White House.
This season Democrats believe they can win the state for Barack Obama. Instead of seceding Virginia to John McCain like decades of previous elections, the Democrats are competing fiercely for the turf.
Why? The last two elected governors were Democrats, incumbent Tim Kaine in 2005, and Mark Warner in 2001. In 2006, Democrat Jim Webb unseated Republican incumbent George Allen for a U.S. Senate. Now Warner is running for the other U.S. seat about to be vacated by the retiring GOP statesman John Warner [not related].
The second reason Democrats are optimistic is there is a surge of newly registered voters, particularly young ones who tend to favor Obama.
Furthermore, the color of the most densely populated stretch of Virginia is not red or blue, but the color purple.
Virginia has an urban crescent that begins in Northern Virginia, the Washington, D.C. suburbs, and then continues south on interstate 95 to Richmond, then leaves the capital and curves south and east to Hampton Roads, which includes cities such as Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Hampton and Newport News.
The demographics have changed substantially over the last decade. There are many new residents who came here for the technology companies, or came to retire, or attend college or serve in military then decide to stay. For whatever reason, the newcomers bring new ideas and energy. I don't hear old-timers derisively refer to new arrivals as "come heres" much these days.
The rest of the state remains solidly red, Republican and conservative, but the urban crescent is a red majority with a lot of blue. Citizens blend their votes and the results lately have been purple. This explains why the last two governors, Kaine and Warner, have been Democrats. Political scientists from this region explain that non-dogmatic conservatives and moderates were the independents who helped elect Democratic governors this decade despite conventional wisdom that Virginia is a Republican and conservative state.
Hampton Roads is emerging as the key battleground in this new presidential battleground state. The national press is not only paying more attention, they're been able to find the region. On Wednesday, the "Today" show will come down to Colonial Williamsburg to do a show as part of a four-day tour of battleground states.
On Sept. 12, "The News Hour with Jim Lehrer" did a meaty 11-minute report. It showed the unpredictable variables in this campaign. At a cul-de-sac in Virginia Beach that years ago might have been solidly Republican, neighbors mostly supported McCain but a sizable minority proclaimed support for Obama. They held a civil debate from their lawn chairs and around a barbecue grill.
At Hampton University, where I teach, Moses Wilson, a senior, was featured because he is the statewide coordinator of Students for Obama. The report noted that 250,000 new voters have been registered in the commonwealth and 40 percent, or 100,000, are young adults ages 25 and under. Newly registered voters are not tracked by political affiliation, nevertheless the new voters in the system adds unpredictability to the Nov. 4 election. Will most of these new voters pull the levers?
I've nagged my 20-year-old daughter - a student at another area college -- to register before the Oct. 6 deadline and she assured me that she fulfilled her responsibility.
Elsewhere, military veterans from a VFW post in Phoebus, a Hampton neighborhood, are die-hard McCain supporters yet they said they are nervous because they know buddies who are so disgusted with the performance of the two-term Bush administration, their frustration could spill over and punish the GOP candidate.
The densely populated urban crescent of Virginia is seeing purple this fall. The bold color should result in an unpredictable finish for the Obama vs. McCain presidential election.
